(The following is the second in a series of questions concerning the professional career of Jimmer Fredette. For the first installment, "By his third season, will Jimmer Fredette start 15 games, click here.)

Which team is the best fit for Jimmer Fredette?

Alex Ventre: The Miami Heat

It was the Miami Heat’s second game of the season when the reigning Eastern Conference champions defeated the Boston Celtics in a 115-107 thriller on TNT. However, the hero of the game wasn’t LeBron James or Dwyane Wade. Rather, it was undrafted rookie Norris Cole. The 6-foot-2 rookie scorched the Celtics for 14 fourth-quarter points and made all the crucial buckets down the stretch for Miami.

Heading into the game, I don’t think Doc Rivers was diagramming defensive schemes to slow down Norris Cole. I don’t even think he knew who Norris Cole was.

Instead, I’m pretty sure Rivers was strategizing how to contain James, Wade and, to a lesser extent, Chris Bosh. If someone told Rivers before the game that Norris Cole was going to be taking all the big shots late in the fourth quarter, I think he would have hugged them.

All of the defensive pressure the Celtics were putting on Wade and James allowed for easy scoring opportunities for Cole. Here’s a look at Cole’s final three minutes of that game:

3:00 — Norris Cole makes 19-foot jumper (Dwyane Wade assists)

1:31 — Norris Cole makes 21-foot jumper (LeBron James assists)

0:59 — Norris Cole makes 20-foot jumper (LeBron James assists)

0:09 — Norris Cole makes 2-of-2 free throws

Besides for a pair of free throws, all of Cole’s offense down the wire was catch and shoot opportunities created by James and Wade.

So what does Norris Cole have to with a Jimmer Fredette column? Well right now, Cole is playing the role Fredette was born to play. On Tuesday, ESPN NBA analyst Chad Ford answered a question about Jeremy Lin’s sudden rise to stardom and he wrote, “What team a player lands on and who his coach is may be the biggest factor in their success.”

And right now, Fredette is in a terrible situation in Sacramento, playing behind a glut of shoot-first guards, while already on his second NBA coach. Cole, on the other hand, ended up in a near-perfect situation. If you reversed their fortunes, I’m sure Cole would be the one receiving DNP-CDs and Fredette would be looking great as a shooting specialist that spaces the floor for Wade, James and Bosh. It just shows how important the situation is for a player’s development.

Look at Kwame Brown. While he never would have lived up to being the first pick in the 2001 NBA Draft, who’s to say he wouldn’t have turned into a starting-caliber big man on a team other than the Michael Jordan-led Wizards. What about Darko Milicic, the No. 2 pick in the 2003 draft? He was touted as the next great big man, but he played on a championship contending team behind the likes of Ben and Rasheed Wallace and coach Larry Brown always had a short leash on Milicic and never allowed him to play through his mistakes.

Even two-time MVP Steve Nash was stuck on the bench as a third-string point guard behind Jason Kidd and Kevin Johnson his first two season in Phoenix. It wasn’t until he was traded to Dallas that Nash started to display his true potential.

So if Fredette could be magically be traded to any team in the league, I would pick Miami. As I previously wrote, Fredette knocks down 53.1 percent of spot-up 3-pointers, which would spread the floor for Wade and James to drive, and if the defense collapses, kick to shooters.

Furthermore, thus far this season, Fredette has struggled setting up his teammates, averaging just 4.6 assists per 48 minutes. In Miami, Fredette wouldn’t be asked to handle the ball much or create for others because they have two future Hall of Famers who are already pretty good at it.

Additionally, the Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the league. Veterans such as James, Wade, Shane Battier, Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony would help mask Fredette’s defensive deficiencies and allow the Glens Falls native to guard the other team’s weakest link.

Lastly, I’ve never been in Sacramento’s locker room, but I can’t imagine there’s one role model or player who is teaching Fredette the tricks of the trade. In Miami, Erik Spoelstra is an established coach and a slew of veterans from James and Wade to Mike Miller and Shane Battier could help guide Fredette though the nuances of the game.

Although I don’t believe Fredette would ever start over incumbent point guard Mario Chalmers, at least he would the opportunity to properly develop on a championship contending team rather than bask in mediocrity in Sacramento.

Here’s to hoping.

Matthew Donato: The Minnesota Timberwolves 

I consulted former Saratogian clerk and basketball guru Michael Kelly for his thoughts on this question. He felt that Jimmer Fredette would both grown and fit the best in Minnesota, and I am inclined to agree.

The Timberwolves are young, talented and still need to grow a bit together, much like Fredette’s current team in Sacramento, but the difference is that Minnesota has structure and roles while the Kings’ roster looks like it is winging it.

Minnesota is a who’s who of recent draft lotteries and boasts enough young potential franchise cornerstones that they look like the Thunder from a few years back. Kevin Love is one of the best players in the NBA and Ricky Rubio has turned the team into a must-watch on the League Pass.

They are well-coached by Rick Adelman and have the young ingredients: Michael Beasley; Derrick Williams; Wesley Johnson; Nikola Pekovic; Wesley Johnson; Anthony Randolf; Wayne Ellington and Martell Webster (Pekovic is the oldest at 26) to just put the lid on this team and let it simmer until it is ready to dominate the league in a few years.

There isn’t much Minnesota needs going forward except an upgrade of their high-energy combo guard. Fredette makes sense here because his skills do not overlap those of Rubio and Love, and he can play the position where the Timberwolves are the weakest.

Today, Minnesota plays Luke Ridnour along with Rubio in the backcourt and brings in J.J. Barea off the bench when the team needs a spark. Fredette would be an upgrade over either player, neither of which is part of the young core the Timberwolves are building around, and would be a valuable third option.

I mentioned in our debate yesterday, Fredette has had trouble getting open on ball screens, but with Rubio’s eye for the perfect pass and opposing teams focused on Love, getting open would not approach the same degree of difficulty Fredette experiences now. He would see plenty of spot-up jump shots and have more space to drive and let his teammates do the rest.

Minnesota has the pieces to make such a move, including future late-round picks when the team finally blossoms. Wesley Johnson and a first rounder in 2014 would fill the need Sacramento has at small forward while giving the Kings a little something extra for trading away such a marketable player in Fredette. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves upgrade at guard without giving up a starter while also upping the ante as the most likable team in the NBA

(The following is the first in a series of questions concerning the professional career of Jimmer Fredette.)

In his third season in the NBA, will Jimmer Fredette start 15 games?

Alex Ventre: Fewer than 15 games started, barring injuries to teammates

In Glens Falls native Jimmer Fredette's third season in the NBA, he will play fewer than 15 games barring injuries.

Fredette’s rookie contract is guaranteed for the first two seasons, then Sacramento has the option to pick up the third year, which is worth just shy of $2.5 million. Although that may seem like a fortune to you and me, in NBA terms, that number is dirt cheap, so the Kings are likely to keep Fredette around.

Also, since the former James Naismith Men’s College Basketball Player of the Year winner is struggling so mightily in his rookie season, Fredette’s trade value is extremely low. So unless the Kings completely give up on Fredette and trade him as a salary dump, it appears he will still be playing in Sacramento — or wherever the Kings move to — in the 2013-14 season.

Also under contract for the Kings in 2013 are starting shooting guard Marcus Thornton, whom they just signed to a four-year, $33 million offer this summer. Furthermore, 2009 NBA Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans — along with center DeMarcus Cousins — appears to be Sacramento’s building block and the Kings are expected to lock Evans up long term after his rookie contract.

Although the Thornton and Evans pairing in the backcourt is a bit dysfunctional, they are the starting guards this season for Sacramento and they will both likely be on the team for Fredette’s third season.

Additionally, fellow rookie guard Isaiah Thomas — who was the last pick in the 2011 NBA Draft – has moved ahead of Fredette in the rotation and has even started a few games for the Kings.

Even though it’s difficult to look two years into the future of an ever-changing NBA landscape, Sacramento will probably still have two, if not three, guards ahead of Fredette in its rotation.  

However, two years is a long time and circumstances can change dramatically. In Fredette’s first year at BYU, he averaged seven points on 40.7 percent shooting. Fast forward two years to Fredette’s junior season and he’s averaging more than 22 points on almost 46 percent shooting. All it took was some time for Fredette to get acclimated to the collegiate game and he excelled. So who’s to say Fredette won’t adjust to the NBA game, improve drastically and earn himself a full-time starting position?

While that is possible, it isn’t probable. In the age of one-and-done collegiate athletes, Fredette — who graduated from BYU — is old for a rookie and has less time to develop. Fredette turns 23 later this week, making him roughly the same age as established superstars like Derrick Rose and Kevin Durant, and older than Blake Griffin and Evans, who is already in his third season.

Unless Fredette finds a perfect situation — such as Derek Fisher starting alongside Kobe Bryant or Mario Chalmers playing point guard next to Dwyane Wade and LeBron James — he would have to improve tremendously to not be the weak link in a starting unit.

On the season, Fredette is shooting a measly 37.4 percent from the field, while sporting a below average 1.5 assist to turnover ratio. Those aren’t the offensive numbers you want to see from a player who is a defensive liability.

The only area Fredette has proven to be an NBA caliber player is on his ability to drain stand-still, catch and shoot jump shots. As I wrote to preview Fredette's return to New York to face the Knicks, he’s hitting 53.1 percent of spot-up jumpers from beyond the arc this season, which is a fantastic percentage that holds defenses accountable for leaving him too much room.

Every team needs shooters to spread the floor and because of this ability, I think Fredette will find his niche in the NBA and serve as a role player off the bench for many years. However, one-dimensional specialists hardly ever start on a regular basis. Look at Kyle Korver, J.J. Redick or Daniel Gibson. Each plays a significant role on his team, but because of their inability to contribute in other areas, each serves as a spark off the bench.

That’s not a bad thing. That’s just how I envision Fredette’s NBA career. And given the right circumstances, such as Eddie House on the 2008 Celtics or Steve Kerr on the mid-90s Bulls, that could be the difference between an NBA championship or early summer break.

Matthew Donato: More than 15 games started

Jimmer Fredette’s future is filled with uncertainty, but given the ever-changing climate of the NBA, his particular skill-set and penchant for playing winning basketball, I could see him starting 15 games in his third year. However, it would have to be outside Sacramento or without Sacramento’s current roster.

Because of Fredette’s difficult transition to the professional game, some believe Fredette does not have the skill-set to make it in the NBA, while others believe his struggles are the result of being an odd fit on an unconventionally built team. I am in the latter camp. In his senior season Fredette took a mediocre BYU team and led them to a 32-5 record that peaked at No. 3 in the AP ranking the week of Feb. 28, 2011. He could score at will and had unlimited range. He did not just succeed at the college level, he dominated it and won over the country’s fans while doing so.

 

In doing so Fredette has proven he can produce at every level and help a team succeed, but as soon as his stats dropped on a team full of dysfunction in the management level and on the court, the same people who watched him light up opponents in college see him as just another shooter. As LeBron James said in this article by The Associated Press’ Tim Reynolds, “He (Fredette) knows how to play the game and he knows how to score the ball. It doesn’t matter what level you’re on — if you’re averaging 29 points in college or high school or whatever the case may be, you know how to put the ball in the hoop. He’s explosive when he has his opportunity. His opportunity right now has been going up and down. Of course, we’ve all seen that. But when he’s had an opportunity, he’s known how to play.”

There were still some glaring holes in his game. He is often a step behind his mark on defense and has to cheat toward the ball when his man moves on screens in order to cover him. If that fails, and it often does, Fredette’s opponent has an open lane to drive or space for a jump shot. He has trouble moving off the ball and does not always create the space needed to get off an open shot. He has, as Alex stated above, experienced his most success during his first professional season when he is left alone and can spot up for a 3-pointer. While this shows great accuracy, he needs to show more well-rounded talent to be a starter, and Sacremento simply is not the place for him to do so.

The Kings are a fascinating team, stocked with players have raw basketball talent and a lack of refinement. Demarcus Cousins, the fifth overall pick in 2010, is a rebounding machine with size and ability, but feuded enough with coach Paul Westphal enough that Westphal was removed from the team. Former Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans is a combo guard who always needs the ball in his hands. Shooting guard John Salmons is also a one-dimensional scorer. Rookie Isaiah Thomas is the most natural point guard on the team and Marcus Thornton holds perhaps the biggest range of skills among the guards. There are simply too many experienced or well-fit guards in front of him on this team.

But remember, Jeremy Lin had too many guards in front of him in Houston as well, leading the team to waive him. Sacramento will not take that route with Fredette, but trading a struggling recent-lottery-pick point guard while he still has potential is an option. The same move was done recently when Minnesota received veteran center Brad Miller and a late first-rounder Johnny Flynn during the 2011 draft.

Fredette requires a distinct supporting cast, a group that can play to his strengths while covering up his deficiencies. He resembles a centerpiece that must be built around, but is too unconventional for that role. A team would be taking an unprecedented risk to build around him, but with himself, another shooter, a swingman, a defensive specialist and a rebounder/shot-blocker in the lineup, the team would always be a threat to make a run and never be out of the game. That team is out there, and we will cover tomorrow which would be the best suit for him, but Fredette could be a starter for a contender just as soon as Sacramento allows the dysfunctional members of its family become estranged.