Odds are that sometime between now and MLB’s Opening Day, you and several friends will pit yourselves against one another in the battle of wits and speculation that is the fantasy baseball draft. As in every good battle, the person with the best intelligence, strategy and gadget-weapons has an advantage, and I am here with the information that, coupled with an Excel spreadsheet, will turn you into your draft’s Baseball Batman.

The key to evaluating the players in your draft is something I have taken to calling fVORP, which stands for “fantasy value over replacement player.” One might recognize VORP as a sabermetric stat, a complicated translation of a players worth compared to a fill-in player, and would be correct to assume that the two are related. The difference is that fVORP compares each player on the draft board to the average fantasy player at his position. fVORP requires simple math to calculate and is customizable to one’s own fantasy league. It may require a lazy Sunday afternoon to compile, but the results of the last few years have had me scheduling a day each season to run the equations and set my draft. I hope this system works just as well for you.

Points-based league

In a points-based league, finding a player’s fVORP comes down to finding the average number of total points scored by a player at a given position, then subtracting that number from the total number of points a player at the corresponding position is expected to earn in the upcoming season.

For example, if Matt Kemp is expected to earn 512 fantasy points in 2012, and the average starting centerfielder scores 292 points, then Kemp’s fVORP is +220.

Compare him to a first baseman like Adrian Gonzalez, who plays a position that traditionally scores more fantasy points. If Gonzalez is projected to score 525 points, and the average starting first baseman scores 345 points, then Gonzalez, despite being the more lucrative scorer, only has a fantasy fVORP of +180.

Name	Proj. Pts.	Avg. Pts. by Pos.	fVORP
Kemp	512	292	+220
Gonzalez	525	345	+180

Since the average scoring first baseman in this scenario has a higher value than the average centerfielder, it is more advantageous to take Kemp first and expect a high-scoring first baseman to be available later. Centerfielders who produce at Kemp’s level are simply rarer, and while that may be something we inherently know, the fVORP gives that knowledge along with a distinct value.

Finding this info is as simple as copy and pasting the data from your fantasy baseball league to an Excel page. From there, the data is easy to manipulate, and players can be organized into positional categories. Once they are given their fVORP by position, the players can be compared head-to-head as the pair above.

Categories-based league

In category-based scoring leagues players can still be broken down into a fVORP, but it takes a few extra steps. Category-based scoring leagues reward players who perform well in each category in play, such as batting average, home runs, pitching strikeouts, etc. The key is giving each player a standard score in each category.

For this example, I have chosen a base 10 system, where the maximum a player can earn in a positive category is 10. This will give every player a score of 0-10 in every individual scoring category.

In Excel, organize your players from most to least in a given scoring category. For this example, the focus will be home runs. An equation can be applied to each player to give the best expected performer 10 points, and every other player a lower number based on the percentage by which they will be surpassed by the leader.

[Theoretical projections: Let’s say Jose Bautista is expected to lead the league in home runs in 2012 with 42, followed by Albert Pujols at 40, and another player like Ryan Zimmerman is expected to hit 28.]

In this case, Bautista’s 42 home runs, divided by 4.2, will equal 10 points in that category, making him the category’s leader with a perfect score. Pujols’ 40 home runs, divided by the same 4.2, gives him a score in the category of 9.52, still good but beneath the leader. Zimmerman, who sits far lower, earns 6.66 points for his 28 expected home runs. (28/4.2=6.66)

This equation can be replicated for each category. Take the number the leader is expected to earn, divide by the corresponding number that will create a quotient of 10 and divide each players expected total by that number to give them a score in that category.

The trouble is that not all categories are as easy as the aforementioned home runs or RBI, where there is an easy whole number to deal with.

In the case of something like batting average, each player is saddled with a decimal number. To side step this, simply slide the decimal over three places (.328 becomes 328) and treat the category the same as the one above.

If Ichiro is expected to lead the league with a .345 batting average, the decimal is moved over to make the number 345, then divide by 34.5 (345/34.5=10) to get the base number. Then divide every other batting average by 34.5 to find the corresponding base-10 score. A batting average of .285 using this metric becomes (285/34.5=8.26).

In some pitching categories like ERA and WHIP, a player is rewarded for a lower score. For this equation, simply take the best projected ERA and add it to the base number — 10 in our case — and subtract each ERA and WHIP from that sum.

If Justin Verlander is expected to have the league’s lowest ERA (for this example we will project him at 2.38), then add 2.38 to 10, creating the standard 12.38. Then subtract each player’s ERA from that number to reveal their category score. Verlander stays a 10, while CC Sabathia, who for this example will be projected to complete 2012 with a 3.47 ERA, would earn 8.91 points (12.38 minus 3.47).

The only downside to this equation is that, since most pitchers are within three runs per nine innings of eachother, it does not set a wide difference from the best in this category and the worst in the category. Even very poor pitchers still earn a score around five. But since ERAs are generally close anyway, perhaps it is logical that the difference is not too great in this category.

In the case of a negative category like strikeouts in hitting or losses in pitching, reverse the number to -10 points to the leader, so that the offensive player with the fewest strikeouts is penalized the least. Each player will earn a negative score, but the hitters with the best eye will not take nearly as much of a hit in this category.

Once each player has a score in every category, add each player’s score in each category together and treat the sum as the total projected fantasy points were treated in the points-based league scenario.

So if Curtis Granderson, in a league with five offensive categories, earns scores of 8.23, 7.66, 9.13, 8.12 and -2.89 (strikeout category), he would have a total score of 30.25, or an average of 6.05 per category.

Once the players are organized by position, find the average score for a starter in that position and subtract that average from each player’s score. If the average centerfielder scores 22.45 points, or 4.49 points per category, then Granderson with the points listed above, he has an +7. 8 fVORP, or +1.56 per category. (I mention the per category part because even in standard 5x5 leagues, some pitching categories, like saves, do not apply to all pitchers. It would be more accurate to only base starters and relievers on the categories that apply to them, which may give a more accurate total than the combined five categories.)

Once the players are organize them from most to least fVORP in either points-based or categories-based formats, you have the most accurate player value list among anyone in your fantasy draft.

This all sounds like a lot of work, and the task sounds overwhelming and you may need a little knowledge of Excel to speed things along, but once the data is brought over from your preferred fantasy site to Excel, the work becomes much easier. Organizing the top 1000 players in two different leagues took me a total of about three hours. If you have the time to commit to the formulas, they will give you a clearer view of the value of each draft pick.

Fantasy baseball sabermetrics are only going to grow, and it will be fun to have an edge over your friends while you still can.

The A.J. Burnett's tenure has concluded in New York and it will not be looked back upon fondly.

The pitcher came to the Yankees as a much-heralded free agent in 2009 and initially paid dividends -- winning a duel with Pedro Martinez in Game 2 of that season’s World Series against the Philadelphia Phillies on the way to the Yankees’ 27th championship. But, in 2012, on his final day as a Yankee, with trade rumors swirling about his eventual trade to Pittsburgh, every Yankee fan I spoke with wanted him gone for whatever we could get.

Burnett was never able to string all his talent together in New York for a significant stretch, and that’s what bothered me the most about him. He always had the stuff, and his K/9 (7.9 in pinstripes, 8.2 career) proved it.

But Burnett had a dark side to his pitching as well. According to ESPN’s Yankees blog, as compared to all Yankees who had pitched a minimum of 500 innings, Burnett had the second-highest ERA (4.79), the second-highest home runs per nine innings (1.25), the second most wild pitches (58), the fifth worst OPS allowed (.783) and the eighth-worst WHIP -- walks plus hits per inning pitched -- (1.45). The blog added, “he is the only Yankee pitcher to qualify for the ERA title and post an ERA above 5.00 in two separate seasons, which he did in 2010 and 2011.”

This came from a guy who compiled a 3.84 ERA over a 1367.33-inning career with the Florida Marlins and Toronto Blue Jays and won 18 games for Toronto in 2008.The numbers suggest three possible scenarios: that Burnett could not handle the pressure of pitching in New York; that Burnett simply peaked from 2004 to 2009 and the Yankees misjudged his ability to maintain his level of performance; or that some time in 2010 Burnett just lost his head and could no longer control his arm.

I am inclined to believe that each of these factors played a role in Burnett’s forgettable tenure with the Yankees. Something definitely changed when Burnett came to the Bronx. After joining the Yankees, his WHIP in each season with the team was higher than in any other season in which he pitched at least 100 innings and he threw more wild pitches than in any season outside New York.

Some players are not designed to handle the pressures and the 24-hour media cycle of New York, while other players thrive in its spotlight. Burnett is the counter-argument to Nick Swisher, who had underperformed in Oakland and Chicago before blossoming in front of Yankee Stadium’s short porch.

Thefailures don't tell the Burnett story completely though, because he had a decent season in 2009. It was the last time he approached an ERA of 4.00 (4.04) and he had a great seven-inning performance, giving up just one earned run, in the 2009 World Series Game 2, which took place at the Stadium in front of 50,181 crazed New York fans. Granted, he followed it up with a Game 5 performance in which he gave up six runs and had to be removed with no outs in the third inning. He could perform in New York, just not consistently. With Burnett it was always feast or famine.

Because of the sharp downturn Burnett’s career took once he became a Yankee, it is hard to say if his career might be jump-started by a change of scenery. Burnett had a good stretch from 2004-09, years when he was 27 to 32 years old. That is a normal peak for a pitcher. But with the way modern pitchers sustain themselves, there is still a chance that he could be rejuvenated in Pittsburgh. I feel he could he still go either way, which makes the deal on Pittsburgh’s end appear to be a good, calculated risk.

Burnett is owed about $33 million dollars for the next two seasons, of which the Yankees have agreed to pay $20 million. So Pittsburgh is only on the hook for about $6.5 million for two years for a pitcher who routinely is among the game’s best strikeout artists, who will eat up innings and, if he can stay focused and can improve without the pressure and disapproval of New York on his shoulders, might still be a viable front-end starter. The Pirates are looking like a breakout team candidate with young players like Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez ready to become stars and a staff that added Erik Bedard in the offseason. The addition of non-New York Burnett could be valuable if the team wants to make a playoff push for the first time since 1992.  


What we know is that Burnett does not work in New York. It remains to be seen if he can get his head back together with a change of scenery and become the pitcher he was in 2008 again. Even at age 35, I believe the potential is there and that this deal will work out for both Pittsburgh and New York. The Yankees free up cash to sign Raul Ibanez and Eric Chavez and get back two low-level prospects in the deal.

Like most New Yorkers, I am happy to have seen the last Burnett wild pitch in a Yankee uniform, but I hope he can change his legacy and be known as the last piece that brought together a playoff team for Pittsburgh. Maybe he can be a hero in Pittsburgh like he was in New York for one World Series game.

While the Yankees' worst problem may be their starting pitching, their best problem is certainly their logjam of talent at catcher. The position has been Jorge Posada's for so long that many young fans have no idea who he took the job from, even though he is sitting in the dugout managing the team today.

Playing catcher puts the most wear on a baseball player, squatting, being in the way of a leather cannonball traveling at 95 mph and colliding with baserunners tends to put a half life on a career that is more Pu-242 than Pu-241.

I'd say this is U-235, more of a left fielder.

So the Yankees want to go in another direction with the position to extend Posada's productivity at the plate and to prepare for the future of the position. Enter Montero ... er, Cervelli. No wait, Russel Martin.

Martin appears to be the forerunner to start at catcher when the season begins. In 2008, he was a two-time All-Star, batting .280 and coming off a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger season in 2007. Then something happened. While Martin was still a highly capable defensive catcher, throwing out 39% of would-be base-stealers last season, his bat has not followed suit. Last year in an injury-shortened season, Martin could only manage to hit .248 and drove in 26 runs. Martin tore the labrum in his hip early in August of last year and missed the rest of last season, then came to New York as a free agent when the Cliff Lee money became available.

At $4 million dollars, if Martin can return to his pre-2009 form, he will be a great bargain. Catcher is a shallow position, and finding one that will not be a black hole  in the lineup is rare in the best of seasons. Also, Yankees fans rejoice, because through the age of 27, baseball-reference.com claims Martin is most comparable historically to Thurman Munson. It is just a shame that comparison is not visual.

Wasn't Munson a character in "Animal House"?

Francisco Cervelli actually started more games at catcher than did Posada last season. I remember feeling especially confident whenever he came to the plate with runners in scoring position, and the numbers back that confidence up. While a .271 hitter the rest of the year, that number jumped to .316 with runners in scoring position, then jumped to .381 with runners in scoring position with two outs, and finally jumped again to .545 with the bases loaded.

Cervelli is a scrappy, unheralded game-changer on a team of highly paid and media hyped superstars, and there is something very endearing about that. In a perfect world, he would have a small cult following of fans who call themselves "Cisco's Kids", who know off the top of their heads that his career range factor through 9 innings would put him 5th among active catchers if he hit the 1000 inning minimum, (He is 21 innings shy of eligibility. Also, Russell Martin is 2nd on this same list.), and wear his jersey over a Mexican caballero outfit.

 Dude, where's your jersey? I thought I was pretty specific.

Cervelli also has the best feel for the AL East, having been calling games there for the last two seasons. Experience is the best commodity for being a game-calling field general, and while Cervelli does not have have it in spades, he does have the most of the three signal callers we are looking at, although it seems obvious that Jorge Posada will be sharing his wealth of knowledge with each.

Jesus Montero is the much-ballyhooed prospect that has recently been rated No. 4 overall. He is 6'4", which many consider too tall to crouch behind the plate for one's entire career. (Joe Mauer is 6'5" and at 27 has already began to face the strain that comes with the position.)

The kid can hit though, batting .289 with 21 home runs at AAA Scranton last season. Many fans feel that Montero would be better suited to play left field or first base when not DHing. He has not done much to silence critics this spring, hitting .222 with no home runs. The NY Daily News has called his catching defense "not major league ready," and believe the Yankees will send him back down to AAA to work more on his hitting and defense.

He is still called a can't-miss slugger, and could use some big-league reps, but the window on the Yankee dynasty of the late-90'-00's is closing with Jeter, Rivera and Posada's age and the fact that Andy Petitte has already retired. The team came within spitting distance of the World Series last season, and making it this year is not out of the question, but getting struggling youngsters with potential their reps comes at a costthat I do not believe the Yankees are willing to pay right now.

Based on all this I believe the Yankees are doing the right thing starting Martin and using Cervelli as a backup. Martin is still of high potential and has proven to me a more than capable All-Star in the past, and a change of scenery may be all that he needs. If it does not work out, we can always plug Cervelli back in. Asking Posada to catch for a few games this season is also not out of the question. Montero will be called up this season at some point, but barring injury, it should not be as a catcher yet ... if at all. The team wants to win this year and or next year for the 90's vets, and I would prefer Montero hitting for 15 years instead of catching for 10.

I've said my piece, but with so many combinations, how would you juggle the catching position? I'm fairly certain the Yankees brass are regular readers, and they will certainly take this to heart.

Buzz surrounds New York Yankees prospect and probable No. 5 starter Ivan Nova following his recent spring training starts. In three starts and one appearance, Nova has accumulated 14 IP, and five Ks, sporting a 1.29 ERA and a WHIP of 0.83. Nova's single blemish this spring (two earned runs on a home run) came against reigning MLB home run champion Jose Bautista.

The Yankees need a reliable starter at the back end of the rotation, since after the Sabathia-Hughes-Burnett combo, the options are Nova, Sergio Mitre, Freddy Garcia and the Bavarian cream doughnut himself, Bartolo Colon.

We signed him for peanuts, nyuk nyuk nyuk.

Nova has shown great promise on the mound, and given his youth (he's 24), he looks to be a solid member of the Yankees pitching staff for many years to come.

So those numbers you sited are just spring training you may say, and that carries as much weight as Greg Anderson's testimony in the Barry Bonds trial thus far. Fair enough.

At Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last season, Nova compiled a 12-3 record in 23 starts and 145 innings, a 2.38 ERA and a 1.262 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was the highest of his minor league career at 2.4. By comparison, Tim Lincecum had a SO/BB ratio of 3.0 last season, and everyman starter Jon Garland had a SO/BB ratio of 1.56. Nova struck out 7.1 batters per 9 innings in AAA, and did little to suffer the long ball, giving up only 10 home runs in AAA last year in his 145 innings. Kevin Correia, who pitched exactly 145 innings, the home games in spacious PETCO Park, gave up 20 homers last season.

Those numbers were more than enough to give the youngster a look in the big leagues, and Nova proved himself as a fighter. As a late August call-up Nova had fine outings against Toronto and the Chicago White Sox. In the 5th inning of the White Sox game, a double by Gordon Beckham followed by an RBI single and stolen base by Juan Pierre threatened the Yankees' slim lead. Unlike the car that bears his name, Nova persevered. Nova struck out Omar Visquel (one of his 7 over 5.2 innings he pitched) to preserve the 2-1 lead, and the game ended with the same score.

Nova went on to exclusively face the AL East for the rest of the season, with mixed results. He pitched well against Baltimore when the Orioles were playing like a real big league team under Buck Showalter, but gave up six earned runs to Tampa Bay in 4.2 innings. Against Boston on Sept. 25, a bad 3rd inning cost the Yankees four runs before he was pulled in the top of the fifth, but in the 1st, 2nd and 4th innings, Boston was set down in order.

While the season did not end with the aspirations with which the initial August starts generated, it was still promising. Nova's numbers came down from what he was producing in AAA, but that is to be expected. His ERA ended at 4.50 -- climbing after the Baltimore game -- while his SO/BB ratio was 1.53 and K/9 was 5.6. Again, the vast majority of his starts were against the AL East, and I would be happy with average performances from my No. 4 or 5 starter against the toughest division in baseball when the Yankees' lineup has his back.

Dressing like the Baseball Furies is a clause in the Yankee dress code.

It is likely that Nova still has some growing pains left, but that is to be expected from any 24-year-old. Nova's  talent is not a question though. His solid 2010 campaign proves that he is ready for the majors, and while he probably will not be a star this season, he will be a fine contributing member to the Yankees rotation and deserves a rotation spot over Garcia, Mitre and Colon.